Predictions and Remarks

For what it's worth, here are some thoughts on next week.

I expect a Kerry victory in both the Electoral College and the popular vote. I also predict that his margin of victory will not be small. I don't expect a landslide, but I also don't expect a frighteningly close election. Most of the polls are showing Kerry nudging ahead already as he picks up most of the undecided voters, and that's even before adjusting our expectations based on the built-in pro-Republican assumptions in most of these polls' methods of collecting data.

I'm not going to make any predictions about Congress, as I don't have a clear sense of how things might go. I hope Kerry has long coattails; he'll need a reasonably compliant Congressto have any hope of correcting the disastrous course we've been on for the last four years. (Wait: I do have one prediction: Obama in Illinois. I know I'm going out on a limb here, but I think he can pull it off.)

Regardless of who wins Congress, Kerry will face an uphill battle with the right-wing propaganda machine. Expect attacks to begin almost immediately. The traditional media used to lay off the President-Elect and even give him a "honeymoon" at the start of his term, but those rules no longer apply. This became clear in 1992, after President Clinton was elected. I've seen remarks about how Clinton had had trouble with the right wing "from the start of his term," but the trouble actually started before he even took office. In the months before his inauguration, "Gays In The Military" had taken the front-and-center position in the national political debate. Clinton found himself having to deal with this divisive issue right away after taking office, denied the chance to set the agenda for his new presidency.

Clinton bobbed and weaved; he tried to conciliate and compromise in order to get these issues settled so that he could take up his own issues, but the attacks continued. I vividly recall the sense of glee on the right and dismay on the left in the early months of Clinton's first term, as he compromised his policy positions and abandoned his prospective appointees such as Lani Guinier. I remember thinking, at the time, that he simply wasn't prepared for the move from Arkansas politics to the national scene. But in retrospect it's clear that he was facing something that earlier Presidents had not had to deal with. He was dealing with an early version of today's right-wing techniques of media manipulation and opinion creation. (Who originated the term "Mighty Wurlitzer," by the way? Was it Digby?)

The big innovation in those days was talk radio. Rush Limbaugh was expanding his influence in 1992, though his full power was only evident in the midterm elections of 1994. The potential of the Internet became clear during the Lewinsky fiasco, when Drudge served as a conduit for rumor and lies. right-wing in its early stages. But regardless of the technology involved, the strategy was well-planned from the beginning and has just been polished over the years.

The strategy: Attack unexpectedly, including in cases where traditionally the target has been given leeway (such as the traditional honeymoon at the beginning of a presidential term). If possible, choose a wedge issue that will help you push public opinion rightward (such as "partial birth abortion"). Coordinate talking points with the RNC, talk radio, Drudge, and (now) right-wing blogs; hammer on it until the mainstream media pick it up. If necessary, lie outrageously, because the mainstream media will never, never use the words "lie" or "lying," especially with reference to a politician. Always keep the target off-balance and on the defensive. Never let them set the agenda; make them respond to you, and try not to give them a chance to make attacks of their own. Milk the current topic for all it's worth. Then, as soon as the mainstream media spin cycle has started to wind down, choose another topic, however bogus, and start up on that one.

This strategy has worked extraordinarily well for the Republicans, to the point that large majorities of the population disagree with them on virtually all major political issues, and yet they still maintain control of all three branches of the Federal government, as well as a majority of state governorships. It's a winning strategy, regardless of the occasional tactical setback (such as Trent Lott). Expect it to continue starting on November 3.

And if I may offer one final recommendation to the Democrats and anyone else on the left: keep fighting back. Don't let up for a minute. Treat calls for "bipartisanship" as the joke they've become in the last four years. The right wing is not interested in compromise or cooperation. They cannot be reasoned with. They do not care about the well-being of the majority of the people of the United States, or anyone else outside their narrow ranks. All they want is power. Fight with every means at your disposal to deny them that power, as they have used it to the detriment of everyone except the rich and malevolent.